Epidemiology

Forecasting the spatial spread of an Ebola epidemic in real-time: comparing predictions of mathematical models and experts

1. James D Munday
2. Alicia Rosello
3. W John Edmunds
4. Sebastian Funk

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  This manuscript provides valuable evidence comparing the performance of mathematical models and opinions from experts engaged in outbreak response in forecasting the spatial spread of an Ebola epidemic. The evidence supporting the conclusions is convincing. It will be of interest to disease modellers, infectious disease epidemiologists, policy-makers, and those who need to inform policy-makers during an outbreak.

Reviewed by eLife

Estimating probabilities of malaria importation in southern Mozambique through P. falciparum genomics and mobility patterns

1. Arnau Pujol
2. Arlindo Chidimatembue
3. Clemente da Silva
4. Simone Boene
5. Henriques Mbeve
6. Pau Cisteró
7. Carla García-Fernández
8. Arnau Vañó-Boira
9. Dário Tembisse
10. José Inácio
11. Glória Matambisso
12. Fabião Luis
13. Nelo Ndimande
14. Humberto Munguambe
15. Lidia Nhamussua
16. Wilson Simone
17. Andrés Aranda-Díaz
18. Manuel García-Ulloa
19. Neide Canana
20. Maria Tusell
21. Júlia Montaña
22. Laura Fuente-Soro
23. Khalid Ussene Bapu
24. Maxwell Murphy
25. Bernardete Rafael
26. Eduard Rovira-Vallbona
27. Caterina Guinovart
28. Bryan Greenhouse
29. Sonia Maria Enosse
30. Francisco Saúte
31. Pedro Aide
32. Baltazar Candrinho
33. Alfredo Mayor

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  This study introduces a useful method to estimate the probability that a malaria case is imported and to identify the geographic origin of parasites by using a Bayesian approach that integrates epidemiological, travel, and genetic data. The authors provide convincing evidence that the approach can reliably identify the main sources of malaria imports. This work will be of great interest to the area of genomic epidemiology and public health strategies aiming to eliminate malaria.

Reviewed by eLife

Dynamic HIV risk differentiation among youth: Validation of a tool for prioritization of prevention in East Zimbabwe

1. Louisa R Moorhouse
2. Simon Gregson
3. Jeffrey W Imai-Eaton
4. Justin Mayini
5. Tawanda Dadirai
6. Phyllis Magoge-Mandizvidza
7. Rufurwokuda Maswera
8. Simbarashe Mabaya
9. Rachel Baggaley
10. Daniel Low-Beer
11. Constance Nyamukapa
12. Shona Dalal

Reviewed by Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases, PREreview

Using step selection functions to analyse human mobility using telemetry data in infectious disease epidemiology: a case study of leptospirosis

1. Pablo Ruiz Cuenca
2. Fabio Neves Souza
3. Roberta Coutinho do Nascimento
4. Ariane Goncalves da Silva
5. Max T Eyre
6. Juliet O Santana
7. Daiana Santos de Oliveira
8. Emile Victoria Ribeiro de Souza
9. Fabiana Almerinda G Palma
10. Diogo César de Carvalho Santiago
11. Priscyla dos Santos Ribeiro
12. Jonathan M Read
13. Cleber Cremonese
14. Federico Costa
15. Emanuele Giorgi

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  This study makes a novel and valuable contribution by adapting step selection functions, traditionally used in animal ecology, to explore human movement and environmental risk exposure in urban slums, offering a promising framework for spatial epidemiology, particularly regarding leptospirosis. The integration of GPS telemetry with environmental data and the stratification by gender and serostatus are notable strengths that enhance the study's relevance for public health applications. The strength of evidence is compelling.

Reviewed by eLife

Shining light on the dark matter of pertussis: evidence for an asymptomatic carriage state from a longitudinal cohort of mother/infant dyads

1. Christian E Gunning
2. Christopher J Gill
3. Pejman Rohani

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  This important study provides evidence for asymptomatic Bordetella pertussis carriage among mothers in a longitudinal cohort in Zambia, significantly advancing understanding of transmission dynamics. The evidence presented is convincing, with strengths including routine sampling irrespective of symptoms and rigorous qPCR methodology, although confirmatory diagnostics would further strengthen the claims. Overall, the study represents an influential contribution to the field of infectious disease epidemiology.

Reviewed by Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases, eLife

Reassessing the link between adiposity and head and neck cancer: a Mendelian randomization study

1. Fernanda Morales-Berstein
2. Jasmine Khouja
3. Mark Gormley
4. Elmira Ebrahimi
5. Shama Virani
6. James McKay
7. Paul Brennan
8. Tom G Richardson
9. Caroline L Relton
10. George Davey Smith
11. M Carolina Borges
12. Tom Dudding
13. Rebecca C Richmond

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  The findings represent an important contribution to understanding whether BMI influences head and neck cancer (HNC) risk after accounting for tobacco use. Within the context of the Mendelian Randomization (MR) field, the strength of evidence appears convincing, supported by rigorous methods and a thorough exploration of multiple genetic models of adiposity using diverse MR approaches. Limitations include the absence of associations in sensitivity models designed to better account for pleiotropy, which prevents evaluation of whether incorporating an instrumental variable for tobacco use would alter the findings. Additionally, the lack of a formal power assessment for detecting associations with the instrumental variables employed limits the interpretability and reach of the results.

Reviewed by eLife

West Nile Virus ( Orthoflavivirus nilense ) RNA concentrations in wastewater solids at five wastewater treatment plants in the United States

1. Alessandro Zulli
2. Dorothea Duong
3. Bridgette Shelden
4. Amanda L. Bidwell
5. Marlene K. Wolfe
6. Bradley J. White
7. Alexandria B. Boehm

Reviewed by Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases

How floods may affect the spatial spread of respiratory pathogens: the case of Emilia-Romagna, Italy in May 2023

1. Claudio Ascione
2. Eugenio Valdano

Reviewed by Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases

A sex-specific Mendelian randomization-phenome-wide association study of body mass index

1. Zhu Liduzi Jiesisibieke
2. Io Ieong Chan
3. Jack Chun Man Ng
4. C Mary Schooling

• Curated by eLife

  eLife Assessment

  The study presents valuable findings on Mendelian randomization-phenome-wide association, with BMI associated with health outcomes, and there is a focus on sex differences. The phenotype and genotype data are convincing. The work will be of interest to researchers and clinicians in epidemiology, public health and medicine.

Reviewed by eLife

Investigation of an ongoing outbreak of ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi in Bangladesh

1. Yogesh Hooda
2. Arif Mohammad Tanmoy
3. Sudipta Deb Nath
4. Anannya Barman Jui
5. Al Amin
6. Hafizur Rahman
7. Neoyman Nasir Shorkar
8. Naito Kanon
9. Md Asadur Rahman
10. Denise O Garrett
11. Mohammad Shahidul Islam
12. ASM Nawshad Uddin Ahmed
13. Samir K Saha
14. Senjuti Saha

Reviewed by Rapid Reviews Infectious Diseases