Epidemiology

eLife assessment

This important analysis helps to shed light on the relationship between blood type and the occurrence of ICD-based phenotypes in a hospital setting. A particularly compelling strength is the analysis' reliance on a population-based patient registry. The results would be further strengthened by an exploration as to whether these phenotypes are driven by patient characteristics (e.g. ethnicity, SES) and not just blood type. Additionally, differences across blood types are driven, in part, by differences in prevalence, somewhat limiting the scope of the analytical findings.

eLife assessment

There is an urgent need to improve prognostication of diabetic kidney disease in different diverse populations so this study is valuable in identifying specific predictive factors in a cohort of South East Asian populations whose baseline risk is higher. There are some limitations: the assumptions the authors make and the methods would benefit from some more investigation/validation.

eLife assessment

This manuscript follows the still unanswered concept of 'original antigenic sin' and shows the existence of a 24-year periodicity of the immune response against influenza H3N2. The valuable work suggests a long-term periodicity of individual antibody response to influenza A (H3N2) within a city. But, to substantiate their argument, the authors would need to to provide additional supporting data.

eLife assessment

This work presents a framework for estimating missing data on cervical cancer epidemiology. If properly validated, it could help determine missing data in regions where data are scarce. The work will be of broad interest to researchers and policymakers evaluating cervical cancer prevention measures.

eLife assessment

This study represents an important contribution to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in France, Europe and globally during the early pandemic in 2020. Through evaluation of the contributions of intra- and inter-regional transmission at global, continental, and domestic levels, the authors explore how international travel restrictions reduced inter-regional transmission while permitting increased transmission intra-regionally. Unfortunately, at this time this work suffers from a number of serious analytical shortcomings, all of which can be overcome with major revisions and re-analysis.

eLife assessment

The authors convincingly demonstrate that, in the absence of any shutdowns, the Danish colorectal cancer screening program experienced only minor decreases in program participation during the COVID-19 pandemic period. This likely ensured ongoing program effectiveness in detecting early colorectal cancers and precancerous polyps. The evidence is solid, as the national screening database was used and only a small proportion of participants were excluded.

eLife assessment

This article shows how the COVID-19 pandemic affected cervical cancer screening participation in the organized screening program of Denmark. Through registry data covering the entire population, the study shows that while short-term (90 days) participation after invitation dropped, long-term (365 days) participation remained stable. These results will be of interest to public health specialists and researchers working on pandemic recovery efforts related to cancer screening worldwide.

eLife assessment

This paper is of broad interest to infer the causal effect of exposures on outcomes. It proposed an interesting idea for the identification of risk factors amongst highly correlated traits in a Mendelian randomization paradigm. The intuition for this method is clearly presented. However, critical details about implementation are missing and its application is not sufficiently demonstrated in the current form.

eLife assessment

This paper provides valuable evidence for a weakening of the association between cognitive ability and height from 1957 to 2018 in the UK. The authors find the strength of the association declined over this time frame. These associations were further attenuated after accounting for proxy measures of social class. This paper is a solid contribution to debates about how genetic, environmental, and social factors have affected the joint distribution of height and cognitive ability over the last 60 years.

eLife assessment

This large-scale collaborative study is a timely contribution that will be of interest to researchers working in the fields of infectious disease forecasting and epidemic control. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the predictive skills of real-time COVID-19 forecasting models in Europe. The conclusions of the paper are well supported by the data and are consistent with findings from studies in other countries.