Epidemiology

eLife assessment

This study presents important results on the predicted impact of cancer screening disruptions in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic based on consultation with public health stakeholders. The evidence presented is solid, as simulations were based on several previously validated breast, cervical, and bowel cancer screening decision models, though the scenarios were based on hypothetical disruptions that do not always match experienced disruptions. The work will be of interest to local policy-makers, public health specialists, and cancer epidemiologists.

eLife assessment

This potentially important study examines brain age based on resting state functional connectivity (RSFC) following an 18-month lifestyle intervention. The design of the intervention study is generally solid; the randomized controlled trial includes three intervention groups and assessments at two-time points of numerous health markers, however, the methodology for brain age prediction appears somewhat incomplete and would benefit from more rigorous approaches. The lack of control groups also prevents firm conclusions about the extent to which the observed RSFC changes are linked to the intervention. With these parts strengthened, the paper would be of broad interest to neuroscientists and biologists working on obesity, lifestyle interventions, and brain health.

eLife assessment

The authors have used an extensive database to study associations between biphosphanate use and COVID-19. Using careful statistical analyses biphosphonate use appeared strongly associated with a lower risk of COVID-19. If these findings are confirmed in well-designed prospective studies biphosphanate use could be an attractive drug to prevent COVID-19.

eLife assessment

This important study presents the idea of "Skeletal Age", defined as the age of one's skeleton as a consequence of fragility fracture, as a potential new tool to raise awareness about the increased risk of mortality following a fracture (particularly hip fractures) and thus improve the medical management of osteoporosis. The evidence is convincing and is derived from a very large database from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Registry. The proposed approach might represent a starting point for making doctor-patient communication about the health risks of an osteoporotic fracture more intuitive and possibly more effective.

eLife assessment

The authors have combined their two recently developed novel approaches to Mendelian randomization studies (1) Lifecourse mendelian randomization which relates genes to the outcome, eg obesity, at different stages of life, and (2) Tissue partitioned mendelian randomization to determine if there are different genetic effects in different tissues. They have successfully combined these two approaches to investigate the influence of adiposity on circulating leptin in childhood and adulthood to demonstrate the value/proof of concept of combining these two techniques. This is very clearly presented and well-conducted work showing both new methodology and compelling results and will be important to both those who use Mendelian randomization and those who are interested in obesity.

eLife assessment

This important analysis helps to shed light on the relationship between blood type and the occurrence of ICD-based phenotypes in a hospital setting. A particularly compelling strength is the analysis' reliance on a population-based patient registry. The results would be further strengthened by an exploration as to whether these phenotypes are driven by patient characteristics (e.g. ethnicity, SES) and not just blood type. Additionally, differences across blood types are driven, in part, by differences in prevalence, somewhat limiting the scope of the analytical findings.

eLife assessment

There is an urgent need to improve prognostication of diabetic kidney disease in different diverse populations so this study is valuable in identifying specific predictive factors in a cohort of South East Asian populations whose baseline risk is higher. There are some limitations: the assumptions the authors make and the methods would benefit from some more investigation/validation.

eLife assessment

This manuscript follows the still unanswered concept of 'original antigenic sin' and shows the existence of a 24-year periodicity of the immune response against influenza H3N2. The valuable work suggests a long-term periodicity of individual antibody response to influenza A (H3N2) within a city. But, to substantiate their argument, the authors would need to to provide additional supporting data.

eLife assessment

This work presents a framework for estimating missing data on cervical cancer epidemiology. If properly validated, it could help determine missing data in regions where data are scarce. The work will be of broad interest to researchers and policymakers evaluating cervical cancer prevention measures.

eLife assessment

This study represents an important contribution to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in France, Europe and globally during the early pandemic in 2020. Through evaluation of the contributions of intra- and inter-regional transmission at global, continental, and domestic levels, the authors explore how international travel restrictions reduced inter-regional transmission while permitting increased transmission intra-regionally. Unfortunately, at this time this work suffers from a number of serious analytical shortcomings, all of which can be overcome with major revisions and re-analysis.