Beyond BMI: an interpretable integrated body composition index from low-dose chest CT for all-cause mortality risk stratification: a multicentre study
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Background
Body composition is recognized as a major determinant of health outcomes, but its multidimensional nature makes clinical adoption challenging. We sought to develop and validate a body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality risk assessment, integrating variables of six body composition tissues.
Methods
We analyzed 28509 consecutive patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging with routine low-dose chest CT attenuation correction (CTAC) scans acquired during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) at 12 centers across four countries. An artificial intelligence-based BCI was developed in a cohort of 15037 patients’ CTACs by integrating the CT-derived metrics of bone, skeletal muscle, and four adipose tissue compartments, coronary artery calcium score, and basic demographic variables (age, sex, BMI). The performance of BCI for mortality prediction was validated in an internal cohort of 6444 patients and an external cohort of 7028 patients by prognosis, calibration, net benefit, and explainability. Model-based simulation of tissue metrics modification was performed to evaluate estimated mortality risk reduction.
Findings
During a median of 3.5 (IQR [1.9, 5.1]) years, 4697 (16%) patients died. In the external testing cohort, the BCI demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.79]) and Harrell’s concordance index 0.75 [0.73, 0.76]), calibration, and net benefit overall and across pre-specified subgroups stratified by patient characteristics and imaging protocols. Visceral adipose tissue attenuation was the most influential body composition measure, followed by skeletal muscle volume. Simulated improvement in body composition was associated with significant mortality risk reduction.
Interpretation
An index combining six body composition measures obtained opportunistically from routine chest CT provides robust mortality risk stratification. By converting complex body composition information into a single interpretable score, the BCI can facilitate clinical implementation of opportunistic CT biomarkers and guide individualized preventive strategies.
Funding
National Institute of Health
Research in context
Evidence before this study
We searched PubMed and Google Scholar on July 7, 2026 for English language studies using the terms (“mortality prediction” OR “death prediction”) AND (“integrated body composition analysis” OR “body composition metrics integration”) AND (“predictive model” OR “model development”), and identified 41 publications describing predictive models incorporating body composition metrics.
Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly granular quantification of body composition from CT, with multiple tissues and tissue-specific metrics showing independent prognostic value for all-cause mortality (ACM) prediction. However, reported associations of body composition metrics with mortality risk were highly inconsistent or even contradictory across studies. This heterogeneity likely reflected the differences in study design or the inherent complexity of body composition analysis, such as the interaction among variables derived from multiple tissues. Thus, it is difficult to interpret body composition results reliably in clinical practice. We hypothesized that integrating multiple body composition metrics could achieve comprehensive and reliable prediction of mortality across patient populations.
Added value of this study
In this large international, multicenter longitudinal cohort study of 28509 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging across 12 sites in four countries, we developed and externally validated an artificial intelligence-based body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality prediction. The BCI integrated chest CT-derived metrics of six body composition tissue compartments – bone, skeletal muscle (SM), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT), together with demographics (age, sex, BMI) and CT-derived coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, all derived automatically from routine low-dose attenuation correction CT scans without additional imaging or laboratory tests.
In an external validation cohort of 7028 patients, the BCI achieved robust discrimination for mortality prediction, substantially outperforming a baseline model using demographics and calcium score alone, and exceeded the discriminative performance of prior body composition models. Performance was consistent across subgroups defined by sex, age, body mass index, cardiometabolic risk factors, imaging modality, and acquisition protocol, supporting generalizability across clinical settings. The BCI demonstrated excellent calibration and net clinical benefit. Explainability analysis identified visceral adipose tissue attenuation and skeletal muscle volume as the dominant contributors to mortality risk, offering tissue-specific therapeutic targets that complement generic weight-based metrics. Model-based simulations suggested that improvements in these specific compartments could reduce estimated mortality risk more effectively than equivalent changes in BMI alone, pointing toward precision therapeutic targets beyond weight reduction.
Our study improved over previous literatures on body composition-based predictive models in one or more of the following ways: (1) we considered six types of body composition tissues while existing studies considered only three or less tissues, thus significantly higher granularity and improved ability to capture refined tissue interactions; (2) our model was rigorously validated in external sites, showing cross-site generalizability while most previous work lacked external validation; (3) our model achieved significant prediction performance improvement over previous body composition predictive models, offering better clinical outcomes prediction and facilitating the suitability for widespread clinical adoption; (4) our study was conducted with a large multi-center cohort across multiple countries, achieving statistical power and demonstrating reliability towards patients characteristics and imaging acquisition protocols while previous studies involved small single-center cohorts; (5) our model required only CT scans and basic demographics which were widely available in clinical routine while the existing models required dedicated laboratory tests or specialized imaging modalities, enhancing the applicability in routine clinical practice.
Implications of all the available evidence
BCI offers an explainable and clinically deployable tool for improved prediction of mortality risk from existing chest CT scans. Its use could inform updates to existing risk models, guide precision preventive strategies, and support development of therapeutics targeting specific body composition phenotypes.
