Clinical Reference Percentiles for AI-derived Epicardial Adipose Tissue: A Multicenter Study

Background and Aims

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has emerged as an important cardiovascular biomarker that reflects both inflammatory and cardiometabolic risk. EAT volume and density vary significantly across populations, yet there is a lack of multicenter studies investigating the predictive value of population-specific EAT percentiles.

Methods

In this multicenter study, we retrospectively analyzed low-dose computed tomography correction scans from 42,842 patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging. A derivation cohort of 15,082 patients was used to establish sex- and age-specific nomograms for EAT density and EAT volume indexed to body surface area. Percentile-based thresholds were tested for outcome prediction in a validation cohort of 27,760 patients. For clinical implementation, we developed an online EAT percentile calculator.

Results

Percentile curves demonstrated increased BSA-indexed EAT volume and decreasing EAT density with age. Over a median follow-up of 3.6 years (IQR: 1.83 – 5.14), 4,956 patients experienced a nonfatal myocardial infarction or death. In multivariable Cox models, patients above the 95 ^th sex- and age-specific percentile had significantly worse outcomes for BSA-indexed EAT volume [adjusted hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.14 – 1.49, p < 0.001] and EAT density [adjusted hazard ratio 1.7, 95% CI: 1.51 – 1.92, p<0.001] when compared to patients below the 50 ^th percentile (p<0.001).

Conclusion

Age- and sex-specific EAT percentiles provide a clinically interpretable framework for contextualizing automated EAT measurements and identifying patients at increased cardiovascular risk. EAT density was a stronger prognostic marker and identified elevated risk even among patients with normal BMI, supporting its potential to provide information beyond conventional anthropometric assessment.

Graphical Abstract