Long-Term Socioeconomic and Demographic Consequences of the Chernobyl Disaster: A Regional Statistical Analysis of Ukraine, 1989–2013

This study investigates the long-term socioeconomic and demographic consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster across Ukrainian regions from a regional statistical perspective. By integrating principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, regression modeling, and spatial visualization using QGIS, the research quantitatively examines how radioactive contamination and geographical proximity to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant have influenced patterns of regional development, public health, and population dynamics over more than three decades.The results reveal persistent disparities between northern and southern oblasts: highly contaminated northern regions exhibit long-term economic stagnation, population decline, and increased health burdens, while southern and western regions demonstrate stronger post-Soviet recovery and urban growth. Regression analyses confirm that radiological exposure remains significantly associated with lower socioeconomic activity (PC1) and greater disease burden (PC2), even decades after the disaster. Spatial mapping further illustrates a stable “low-activity belt” corresponding to the contaminated zones, indicating the enduring geographic imprint of environmental inequality.The study contributes to broader theoretical discussions on environmental inequality, path dependency, and resilience by showing how environmental shocks can become institutionalized in social and economic systems. These findings highlight the need for integrated recovery policies that combine environmental remediation with social and economic reintegration to address structural inequalities in post-disaster societies.