Spatio Temporal Analysis of Urban Expansion and its Impacts on Livelihood Displacement in Ambo Town, Ethiopia

Rapid urban expansion in developing countries drives the conversion of peri-urban agricultural land. This process creates significant socio-economic challenges. This study examines the drivers, patterns, and impacts of urban expansion in Ambo Town, Ethiopia, revealing critical policy gaps. We used an integrated geospatial and socio-economic approach. Landsat imagery (1990–2023) was classified to quantify land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics, and a CA-Markov model projected future change to 2056. Socio-economic data were collected from 124 displaced households and key informants. Results reveal a dramatic spatial transformation: built-up area increased by 38.75% (1,546.51 ha), primarily at the expense of forest and cropland. This expansion caused severe livelihood disruption for 95.2% of households. Critically, while 89.2% received monetary compensation, 91.9% were dissatisfied with the amount, and 99.2% received no rehabilitation support whatsoever. The CA-Markov projection indicates built-up areas will dominate 91.75% of the landscape by 2056. The study highlights a significant policy-practice gap in compensation valuation and post-displacement assistance. Strengthening expropriation policies, ensuring fair compensation, and integrating livelihood restoration into urban planning are essential for equitable land governance.