Effects of multiple climate-related disasters on mobility and immobility

Background: As climate-related disasters become more frequent and intense, understanding how people’s patterns of mobility and immobility are affected by multiple disasters is crucial to informing disaster planning and adaptation efforts. This study aims to examine the effects of climate-related disasters on displacement across multiple exposures and the sociodemographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of mobility following disasters, including who moved, the distance they moved, where they relocated to, and the time elapsed until their return. Methods: Using longitudinal population based Australian data during 2009-2023, people who experienced at least one disaster (flood, bushfire, or cyclone) were tracked for each successive disaster from pre- to post-disaster years. Exposed populations were compared to unexposed populations and the pre-disaster baseline. Effects of multiple disasters on the risks of mobility and immobility were estimated using regressions with multi-level fixed effects and clustering. Results: The likelihood of displacement decreased both as time passed after a disaster and with repeated disaster exposure. People who moved during the initial disaster disproportionately moved again during subsequent disasters. Mobility and immobility of the affected population were sociodemographically patterned, with private renters consistently showing higher mobility across multiple disasters and people living in poverty progressively experiencing immobility. Spatial, destination, and temporal patterns of disaster-related displacement were closely linked to employment, housing status, community attachment, and life stages, showing that older people and people with stronger community attachment were more likely to move short distance, young people, renters, and lone parent/person households more likely to move to lower socioeconomic areas, and young people and unemployed individuals less likely to return. Conclusions: Findings point to the importance of understanding structural patterns of recurrent mobility and chronic immobility with repeated disaster exposures. Disaster resilience efforts need to address these challenges shaped by intersecting disadvantages.