Coca Politics: Electoral and Public Response to tough-on-crime policies in Colombia

Governments across the Global South widely rely on tough-on-crime policies to controlillicit drug production. While advocates argue these policies are essential for controllingcartels, detractors claim they have harmful consequences and limited effectiveness in reduc-ing drug production. How do the consequences of tough-on-crime policies shape electoralaccountability and public support for these measures? This paper addresses this questionby examining the electoral impact and public opinion reactions to Colombia’s aerial cocaeradication program, one of the main tools for reducing cocaine production. Using datafrom three presidential elections and employing novel difference-in-difference approaches, Ifind that aerial spraying decreases the vote share for the incumbent candidate supportingthis policy in areas where eradication occurred. Moreover, municipalities, where the policyis concentrated over time, vote more severely against the incumbent in subsequent elections,suggesting that the enduring effects of tough drug policies shape electoral accountabilityover the long term. To test this mechanism, I conducted a nationally representative surveytesting public support for aerial eradication. The results indicate that while support for thepolicy is highly ideological - with right-wing voters backing it despite its negative impacts -increased engagement with information about its consequences is associated with a decreasein public support. This study highlights how electoral accountability and public opinionshape support for tough-on-crime policies in the Global South, with several implications forsecurity policy and comparative politics literature.