Democratic Imprints from Abroad: How External Support from Democracies Promotes Rebel Elections in Civil Wars

In recent years, an increasing number of rebel groups have organized elections amid ongoing armed conflicts. Existing research has largely emphasized internal drivers of this phenomenon, such as governance capacity and organizational strength. This paper shifts the focus to international dynamics, showing that foreign sponsorship—particularly from democracies—plays a critical role in shaping rebel electoral behavior. We argue that support from democratic states increases the likelihood that rebel groups hold elections by amplifying their legitimacy gains while mitigating the costs of electoral competition. Our analysis of cross-sectional time-series data, combined with a case study, demonstrates that democratic sponsorship significantly increases the likelihood of rebel elections compared to both rebels without foreign support and those backed by autocratic states. These findings highlight the role of foreign sponsorship in fostering electoral institutions in wartime and contribute to broader debates on external influence in rebel governance.