Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France
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Abstract
We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20–30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.08.20246009: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:An important limitation of mass testing is that, when the campaign begins, approximately half of the individuals who are infected are still in the latent phase E1 so that they do not shed sufficient virus to test positive. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.08.20246009: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:An important limitation of mass testing is that, when the campaign begins, approximately half of the individuals who are infected are still in the latent phase E1 so that they do not shed sufficient virus to test positive. These individuals will not be detected and will become infectious after the campaign, fueling once again the epidemic. This problem can be partly mitigated by extending isolation to household contacts, as in Slovakia, and performing robust contact tracing of cases(12). Finally, for a given number of tests, impact might be higher if tests are target towards areas, populations or places of higher incidence. Our study has a number of limitations. First it relies on a deterministic model that may imperfectly capture epidemic dynamics when the daily number of infection becomes very low. In such situations, the epidemic may take longer to rebound than anticipated by the model. Second, we do not address the logistical challenges involved in regular mass screening and assume that individuals are tested in a single day.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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