Is Excess Mortality Returning to Pre-Pandemic Levels? A Multi-Model Stochastic Approach for COVID-19: The Spanish Case

This study examines whether excess mortality in Spain is returning to pre-pandemic levels by quantifying the increase in mortality associated with COVID-19 during the period 2020–2023. To achieve this objective, we apply a forecasting-based methodology that can be used in any regional or temporal context, relying on several stochastic mortality models to project future mortality rates using pre-pandemic data and comparing these projections with observed values. The results reveal substantial excess mortality during the pandemic years, followed by a gradual decline that suggests a partial return toward pre-pandemic mortality patterns. The analysis highlights the usefulness of multi-model stochastic approaches for evaluating the impact of mortality shocks and for monitoring the extent to which mortality normalizes after such events. The findings underscore the need for robust statistical tools to support public health assessment and to inform prevention and response strategies in future health crises.