National-scale evidence for rapid cotton yield gains under sustainable intensification in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's cotton sector has rapidly increased productivity between 2021 and 2025, driven by a wave of reforms to accelerate the adoption of modern cultivars and intensify management. We quantified time-series trends in yield, cultivated area, technology, and economic impacts across agro-climatic zones by monitoring national data records. National average yield rose from 3.24 to 4.55 t ha⁻¹ (+ 40.4%); total output increased by 19.3%, but with a 15.1% cut in cultivated land. Separate regression analysis provided evidence for a two-phase fit with an inflection around 2024, coinciding with reform measures, but formal breakpoint tests did not reach statistical significance. Over the study period, the share of planted area for advanced technologies such as RNAi- and marker-assisted selection (MAS) cultivars and imported Bt/glyphosate-tolerant (Bt/Gt) materials increased to ~ 38.51% by 2025; these technology groups achieved higher mean yields than traditional cultivars. The genotype × environment and stability analyses revealed generally consistent cultivar rankings across regions, indicating the adaptability of dominant cultivars across environments. Economic analysis also indicated that intensified systems reduced input costs and increased profit. Taken together, however, such large-scale results provide evidence that sustainable intensification in irrigated cotton systems is possible during a short reform era marked by significant productivity expansion, a period that coincided with both technology diffusion and management system reform.