Potentiality and Prospect of Guava Production and its Panorama on Bangladesh National Economy

Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is an important tropical fruit crop in Bangladesh with substantial potential for enhancing agricultural diversification, rural income, and nutritional security. This study investigates the production trends, regional variation, and prospects of guava cultivation and evaluates its contribution to the national economy using division-wise time series data from 2010–2011 to 2023–2024. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics were analyzed, and an ARIMA (0,1,0) model was applied for forecasting. The results indicate a steady increase in total guava production despite fluctuations in cultivated area, suggesting productivity improvements. Chittagong emerged as the leading producer, followed by Rajshahi and Dhaka, while Sylhet recorded the lowest output. Forecasting performance showed comparatively strong model fit in Chittagong and Rajshahi divisions, with acceptable error measures across regions. Although challenges such as climatic variability, limited value chain development, and post-harvest losses persist, the findings confirm significant untapped potential in guava production. Strategic policy support, improved varieties, and strengthened market infrastructure could enhance its role in sustainable agricultural growth and the Bangladesh national economy.