Strengthening Smallholder Adaptive Capacity to Seasonal Climate Variability in Semi-Arid Somaliland

Smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions face great challenges due to impact of climate variability, particularly erratic rainfall, dry spells, and rising temperatures that undermine agricultural productivity and resilience. This study examines the contribution of Climate Information Services (CIS) to smallholder resilience in Gabiley District, Somaliland. A mixed-methods design that combines climate trend analysis (1993–2023) with household survey (n = 164), alongside key informant interviews and focus group discussion was employed in this study. Annual rainfall exhibited high variability with coefficient of variation (CV) of 42.3%, and some months showed extreme variability (eg., February with a CV of 172.8%). Annual rainfall showed no statistically significant monotonic trend over 1993–2023 (p = 0.32), despite substantial inter-annual variability. whereas minimum temperature increased significantly p = 0.012; Sen’s slope ≈ +0.02 °C yr⁻¹. Seasonal analysis revealed irregular onset dates, frequent dry spells, and unstable growing seasons, which constrain farm-level decision-making. A Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), derived using Principal Component Analysis, captured absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. Logistic regression analysis identified education, credit access, and extension services as key drivers of CIS uptake. RCI patterns differed between CIS users and non-users, with clearer advantages in absorptive and transformative dimensions among some CIS users. Despite limitations related to the use of cross-sectional data and absence of ground-station validation, the study provides robust evidence that CIS enhances resilience in the vulnerable farming systems. The findings underscore the importance of scaling up inclusive CIS delivery, strengthening institutional coordination, and embedding climate services within national adaptation strategies.