Benefits and limits of controlled burning for climate change adaptation

Wildfires are increasing in severity and harm to humans, creating a pressing climate change adaptation challenge. Current management approaches in the Global North, focused on firefighting, can drive fuel accumulation and increased fire intensity. By contrast, Indigenous peoples and local communities have used controlled burning to successfully co-exist with fire for at least 50,000 years. Recently, controlled burning has been suggested as a strategy to adapt to climate-altered fire regimes, but there has been no global assessment of its potential. Here, we present the first quantitative global assessment of controlled burning for climate change adaptation, using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an agent-based model of human fire use and management. We find that controlled burning can play an important role in constraining future fire hazard and intensity. However, we also identify barriers and confounding factors that may limit its implementation. Notably, even in a low emissions-scenario with increased adoption of controlled burning, fire hazard is still 41.4% [33.8%-50.6%] higher in 2100 than in 2015. Our results suggest that incremental changes in management may be an insufficient response to climate change. Transformative approaches could in principle address this adaptation shortfall, but will need to grapple with how to integrate controlled fire use into capital-intensive land systems on an increasingly flammable planet.