Climate-Driven Wildfire Risk in the Sumapaz Páramo, Colombia: Coupling the Fire Weather Index with Spatiotemporal Analysis

Vegetation Cover Fires (VCFs) are recurring disturbances that threaten biodiversity, hydrological regulation, and carbon storage. Between 2001 and 2023, 128 fire events consumed approximately 815 ha in Sumapaz, representing 64.9% of all fires recorded across Bogotá's 20 localities. Despite this disproportionate impact, no spatially explicit, operational risk management framework has been available for the region. This study addresses that gap by proposing an integrated risk assessment and management strategy based on (i) the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System Fire Weather Index (FWI), derived from ERA5 reanalysis climate data; (ii) spatial and temporal hot-spot analysis of MODIS FIRMS active-fire detections; and (iii) IDEAM's multi-component Vulnerability and Threat scoring protocol. Spatial data were processed using ArcGIS, and FWI sub-indices were computed for each month of the 2001–2023 period. The FWI averaged 0.78 (low danger) across the study period yet peaked at 13.7 in February 2010 (moderate-to-high danger), consistent with the year of highest recorded fire activity (19 events). High and very high-risk areas (3.70% combined) coincide with slopes >25%, the presence of the invasive and pyrogenic Ulex europaeus, and proximity to populated and agricultural lands. The study concludes with a three-pillar risk management framework risk knowledge, risk reduction, and disaster management providing spatially targeted, operationally viable strategies for local and institutional actors. Limitations regarding MODIS detection uncertainty, ERA5 spatial resolution in complex terrain, and the need for probabilistic modelling are explicitly acknowledged.