Assessing resource stress under agriculture expansion and climate change

Increased global warming is projected to alter rainfall patterns, intensifying pressure on water availability. The already acknowledged 2.3–2.5◦C temperature increase under current policies calls for progress in adaptation planning. This research assesses how agricultural expansion and climate change impact resource stress. We developed a Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) model with explicit seasonal crop-growth stages to quantify cross-sectoral trade-offs, analysing water stress and biodiversity indicators in Ethiopia. We compared standardized IPCC scenarios with historical trends and observed that seasonal differences in precipitation increase by 9.5% and 20% on a national scale for medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) impact climate trajectories, respectively. These impacts intensify with crop migration, where variable crop yield responses and seasonal crop water needs increase water stress and drive biodiversity loss. This study lays the foundation for progress in adaptation planning by demonstrating how integrated resource management can enable more coherent strategies across sectors.