Equitable Decarbonization Scenarios for Indian States: Integrating Household Demand-Side Shifts with Multi-Sector Supply-Side Interventions

As the world’s third-largest emitter, India’s ambition to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 prioritizes technocentric, supply-side measures. This strategy, often justified by poverty alleviation, masks deep-rooted inequality and accelerating environmental degradation. Using a high-resolution, state- and settlement-level dataset of household consumption emissions \cite{Bogra2025}, socio-metabolic scenarios to 2050 are constructed that systematically embed considerations of distributive fairness. Under business-as-usual, household emissions rise from 2,605 to over 10,000 MtCO$_2$eq—driven not by food (+43\% nationally) but by sharp non-food growth (+278–308\%), with rural per capita emissions surpassing urban in 23 of 36 states. Applying the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework \cite{Creutzig2018}, combined interventions (grid decarbonization, nutritionally adequate diets, reduced high-income travel) avoid 4,050 MtCO$_2$eq in 2050, yet residual emissions remain high. Crucially, mitigation potential is spatially uneven: dietary and agronomic shifts yield highest returns in high-food-emission states (e.g., Mizoram: 3.9 tCO$_2$eq/capita), decentralized renewables in high-non-food regions (e.g., rural Gujarat: 16 tCO$_2$eq/capita), and climate-smart intensification in populous states (UP, Bihar, MP). These findings indicate India’s just decarbonization requires move towards socio-metabolic fairness—aligning provisioning systems (food, mobility, energy) with decent living standards within ecological limits. This entails expanding low-carbon infrastructure alongside progressive consumption guidance, spatial design that lowers energy-service intensity, and support for low-emission livelihoods—ensuring climate action strengthens, rather than undermines, equity and sustainability.