A Risk-Based Framework for Regional Decarbonization: Spatial Analysis of Household Sector Vulnerabilities and Resilience Pathways

The strategies for climate change mitigation and its approach are an essential aspect of disaster risk reduction (DRR), aimed at controlling the basic mechanisms of hydro-meteorological hazards intensification. This study reframes regional decarbonization of Russia's Housing and Communal Services (HCS) sector as a calculated disaster risk management peremptory. Assessment of household carbon footprints across diversified federal districts of the Russian Federation enabled us to identify the disparity in emission drivers and socio-economic susceptibility that constitute climate risk. Our methodology integrates field survey data with cost-benefit analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate region-specific policy portfolios not only for their emission reduction potential but also for their effectiveness in reducing vulnerability and building systemic resilience. We found that Moscow's per capita emissions are double those of Vladimir, driven by high aviation and automobile use, while Siberian and Ural regions like Tomsk show acute vulnerability due to coal dependence and energy poverty. Policy simulations reveal that regionally-tailored interventions—such as aviation fees in Moscow (Benefit-Cost Ratio, BCR: 4.8) and coal-to-gas transitions in Tomsk—offer superior cost-effectiveness and significant risk reduction co-benefits, including improved air quality and energy security. This study provides a replicable, risk-based framework for designing spatially-sensitive climate policies that simultaneously mitigate disaster risk and enhance socio-ecological resilience in large, heterogeneous nations.