Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Conflicts in China’ Major Grain-Producing Regions

Food security is a strategic issue of global concern. In China's major grain-producing regions (CMGPRs), conflicts among agricultural, construction, and ecological land are intensifying owing to rapid urbanization and overlapping land-use demands, thereby creating significant risks for food security. To address the lack of systematic analyses of spatial conflicts within CMGPRs, a land-use suitability evaluation system is constructed for Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, and Henan. This system analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of land-use conflicts from 2005 to 2023 and employs the patch-generating land-use simulation model to project future land-use pattern under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, and ecological priority. The main findings are as follows. (1) Between 2005 and 2023, agricultural land suitability decreased by 10.23% in Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin) but increased by 24.55% in Central China (Shandong, Henan). Construction land suitability improved across all four provinces, whereas ecological land suitability decreased by 20.53% from 2005 to 2014 but increased by 34.62% from 2014 to 2023. (2) The “intense conflict between agricultural and construction land” intensified significantly across CMGPRs, with Henan experiencing the largest increase (24.86%). (3) The ecological priority scenario aligns best with future sustainable development in CMGPRs. By curbing construction land expansion and enhancing ecological space, this scenario contributes to increasing agricultural space, achieving synergistic benefits between agriculture and ecology. The findings offer valuable practical insights for mitigating land-use conflicts in grain-producing regions, promoting sustainable development of national territorial space, and safeguarding food security.