Detection and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change and Ecosystem Service Due to Mega Project: A Case Study for Dhaka-Mawa Expressway

The Dhaka-Mawa Expressway, the first-ever expressway in Bangladesh, has significantly influenced land use and land cover (LULC) patterns, with major implications for the region’s ecosystem services. This study investigates the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020 using Landsat satellite data and predicts future shifts up to 2040 through the CA-Markov model, focusing on the environmental impact of rapid infrastructure development. The study also evaluates the Ecosystem Service Values (ESV) by using the Ecosystem Services Valuation Database (ESVD). Nine upazilas (subdistricts) of five districts associated with the highway were chosen as the study area. Results show that from year 2000 to 2020, there was an increase in built-up areas amounting to 155.63 km². The increase of built-up areas took place at the cost of natural land covers through the loss of 92.33 km² of vegetation areas and 24.6 km² of water bodies. The study predicts that from 2020 to 2040 the urban area will increase by 67.12% and waterbodies and greeneries (vegetation + agricultural) will decrease to 16.66% and 18.97%, respectively. Between 2010–2020, among the selected areas, the most increase in urban development had happened in Zanjira (76.39%), and it also faced a major loss of agricultural land (53.88%), whereas Sreenagar had the major decrease in waterbodies (88.65%). These LULC changes have generated marked effects on ESV, which decreased by 14.96% from 2000 to 2020 and is still forecasted to further decline by 2040. Thus, the total ESV is expected to fall from $362.18 million/year in 2000 to $255.04 million/year by 2040, which accounts for a 29.6% reduction within the 40-year period. Water bodies, which provide the highest ecosystem services, are seen to decline by about 28.5% in ESV by 2040 due to urban encroachment. On the contrary, huge losses of ESV emanate from forested areas as a result of deforestation and expansion into agriculture. Indeed, this has pointedly called for integrated land management and policy intervention with a view to balancing infrastructural growth with environmental conservation. Predictive modeling of future LULC trends reveals further urbanization and hence sustainable urban planning is crucial for reducing negative impacts on ecosystem services.