Crop Switching Enhances Multi-Dimensional Sustainability under Future SSP Pathways in the North China Plain

Food system sustainability presents a complex challenge exacerbated by climate change and growing global demand. The North China Plain, one of China's major grain-producing regions, confronts a significant threat to both water and food security, driven by severe groundwater over-exploitation. To address this challenge, we propose a crop switching strategy to enhance agricultural sustainability in the North China Plain. Our scenario analysis demonstrates that, under a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2), replacing high-water-consuming crops with low-water-consuming alternatives could feed an additional 5.18 million people, reduce water use by 2.0%, and increase farmer profits by 3.6% by 2030. While the sustainable scenario (SSP1) would amplify these benefits, the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3) would achieve greater food production and water savings at the expanse of farmer profits. Despite these differences, all scenarios could support progress toward Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings position strategic crop switching as a viable approach to alleviate interconnected food, water, and economic pressures, not only in the North China Plain but also in other comparable regions facing similar pressures.