Deciphering the impact of AI on EU’s Net-Zero Ambition

The unprecedented expansion of AI is adding unaccounted electricity demand to Europe’s power system. While incumbent plans pursue a net-zero future by 2050, they largely fail to consider the implications of large-scale AI facilities. In this study, a spatially explicit optimization model is developed to assess how AI may reshape energy infrastructure investment, emissions trajectories, and electricity prices across four AI demand growth scenarios. Results indicate that moderate AI growth can be accommodated with limited deviation from existing plans. However, in higher growth cases, emissions exceed the baseline by 49-79% between 2040-2050, leading to 3–7 year delays in meeting 2040 emissions targets. A decarbonized supply to AI demand, requires up to 2,000 GW of additional wind and solar capacity. With gas capacity projected to rise across all AI scenarios, especially in the final decade, the EU risks undermining its carbon-neutral goals unless policies adapt to its accelerating digital transformation.