A multi-model assessment of technological constraints on Europe’s energy transition

Europe’s pursuit of net-zero emissions by 2050 is driven by the urgent need to contribute to global climate efforts and enhance its energy security, reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels. The path to net zero entails a significant, economy-wide uptake of clean energy technologies. However, geopolitical tensions impeding trade, resource unavailability, or sociopolitical factors may give rise to considerable constraints to the uptake of such technologies. Using a diverse model ensemble, we explore the implications of limitations in terms of availability of critical low-carbon technologies such as renewables and batteries, biomass, and carbon capture and storage. Our findings suggest that such constraints could impact mitigation efforts as costlier alternatives become essential, compromise energy security while increasing reliance on fossil fuel imports, and drive cumulative emissions upwards, essentially jeopardising the EU’s mid-century climate targets. We underscore the need for resilient energy-system transformations capable of withstanding geopolitical and technological disruptions, including policies prioritising the acceleration of energy efficiency and renewable energy diffusion.