Climate change adaptation and food security nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: A macroeconomic analysis of investment needs and returns

Purpose: Global food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces mounting threats from climate change, rapid population growth and declining agricultural resources. This study addresses the urgent need for an integrated analysis of the climate change and food security nexus in SSA to inform policies that harmonize environmental sustainability with agricultural productivity. Methodology: Using quantitative panel data approach, the study analyzes data of 34 SSA countries, sourced from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) from 2001–2023. Preliminary diagnostics revealed heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional dependence, necessitating the use of Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, with Panel-Corrected Standard Errors applied for robustness checks. Findings: Model 1 show that CO₂ emissions and rainfall positively influence food security in the short term, while population growth reduces it and economic growth improves it. However, when agricultural policy is introduced in Model 2, CO₂ emissions and rainfall turn negative, suggesting long-term environmental risks, while targeted agricultural policy on expenditure significantly mitigates these effects and enhances the benefits of rainfall. Policy implications from the findings highlight the importance of climate-resilient agricultural spending, sustainable production practices, demographic management, inclusive economic growth and adaptive rainfall utilization programs to strengthen food security resilience in SSA. JEL codes: Q18, Q54, Q18, C13, O55