Narratives for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture A Sectoral Downscaling of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Despite advances in agricultural productivity, sustainable practices, and cleaner energy, Brazil’s agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to climate change. Projected rises in temperature, water stress, and extreme weather will increasingly impact national agroecosystems. This study presents the AGROBR-SSPs (Agricultural Pathways for Brazil within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework), a set of qualitative, region-specific scenarios developed through a top-down downscaling of the global SSPs. These narratives reflect Brazil’s socio-environmental and institutional contexts, integrating key factors such as governance, economic trends, and lifestyle changes. The AGROBR-SSPs support integrated analyses of land use, crop productivity, environmental pressures, and fossil resource use. By aligning national pathways with global frameworks, the research informs climate-resilient policy and strengthens the adaptability of Brazil’s agri-food systems through 2050.