Carbon Emissions and Environment Sustainability in Somalia: Examining the Nexus with Economic Factors, Energy Consumption, and Urban Growth using an ARDL Approach

Background Somalia, a fragile state facing significant environmental and developmental challenges, lacks comprehensive analysis on how human capital, economic factors, energy consumption, and urban growth influence carbon emissions, a key indicator of environmental degradation and a major component of carbon emissions . This study addresses this gap by examining the nexus between these factors and carbon emissions in Somalia. Methods Using time-series data for Somalia (1990-2020), an ARDL model was applied. The dependent variable was CO2 emissions per capita (LnCO2). Initial independent variables included human capital (LnHCI), energy consumption (LnENC), urban growth (LnURB), GDP (LnGDP), FDI (LnFDI), and trade openness (LnTRD). Due to significant multicollinearity among several initial independent variables, a refined model was estimated after carefully addressing these issues, including only the most robust and theoretically relevant variables for which non-collinear estimates could be obtained. Standard unit root, lag selection, bounds, and diagnostic tests were conducted. Results Unit root tests confirmed mixed integration orders. The ARDL bounds test (F=1.725) found no statistically significant evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship at the 10% level. Furthermore, the error correction term was positive, indicating no convergence to equilibrium. Despite the absence of formal cointegration, the model indicated significant associations between LnCO2 and LnENC (0.140, p=0.000) and LnGDP (0.022, p=0.001) in the long run, and a counter-intuitive negative association with LnURB (-0.178, p=0.000). Short-run results showed negative impacts from urban growth and lagged GDP changes. Diagnostic tests confirmed model adequacy and parameter stability. Conclusion Although formal cointegration was not established, and the error correction term indicated no long-run convergence, the findings suggest that energy consumption and economic growth are positively associated with CO2 emissions in Somalia in the long run, while urban growth shows a counter-intuitive negative association. These context-specific findings underscore the unique dynamics of a fragile state and challenge conventional wisdom. Policies should prioritize transitioning to clean energy and promoting green growth. Further research is needed to understand the urban-environment link and improve data availability in Somalia.