Evaluation of the effectiveness of agricultural carbon emission reduction policies: An empirical analysis based on different policy tool types in China

As a major global contributor to agricultural output and carbon emissions, China faces a critical imperative to curtail emissions within its agricultural sector, a pivotal step toward realizing carbon neutrality. Assessing the efficacy of relevant policies is indispensable to ensuring their impact and advancing strategic objectives. The study employed multiple linear regression approach, the research conducts an empirical analysis to evaluate the impact of policy interventions. The results indicate that: (1) Carbon reduction efforts in agricultural production are predominantly driven by mandatory measures, with policy outcomes exhibiting a notable lag effect; (2) Incentive policies most effectively reduce carbon emissions in agriculture, outperforming other types in quantity, power, and overall impact; (3) Carbon emissions in livestock breeding and agricultural land use processes are significantly curbed by the combination of incentive and coercive policies; (4) Increases in Gross Domestic Product and agricultural employment positively correlate with carbon emissions in agricultural production, while a higher share of primary industry leads to the opposite trend. This study holds significant implications for the formulation of agricultural carbon emission reduction policies in the future.