Land use dynamics and urban development suitability: A geospatial analysis of Romania’s most urbanized county

Land use and land cover changes in Constanța County are linked to socio-economic and political transformations, particularly during two key periods: the transition period (1990–2003), marked by a shift from a centralized economy to a market-oriented system, and the post-transition period (2003-present), characterized by continued economic growth and urban expansion. These transformations align with broader trends in post-socialist and rapidly urbanizing regions, where economic restructuring often precipitates the large-scale conversion of agricultural land into built-up areas.This study employs CORINE Land Cover datasets to assess nearly 30 years of land use and land cover changes. Given the observed trends of increasing artificial surfaces and the decline of forest and semi-natural areas, a suitability analysis was conducted to deliver a spatially explicit evaluation of areas with potential for urban expansion.The integration of spatial, contextual, and environmental variables in the suitability analysis clearly demonstrated that cities situated in immediate proximity to the coastline possess a markedly low potential for further urban expansion.Situated along the Black Sea coast, Constanța is the most urbanized county in Romania. It serves as a representative case for examining urbanization dynamics in coastal regions worldwide. In these areas, proximity to the sea accelerates urban growth, while also increasing vulnerability to environmental degradation. These findings provide valuable insights for other coastal cities facing similar development pressures, emphasizing the need for careful balancing of urban growth with environmental protection. This approach supports informed planning, particularly in regions undergoing accelerated land use transformations, a pattern common in fast-growing urban areas globally.