How the land use conflicts will change in Wuhan Metropolitan Area in 2030?

The construction of urban areas will cause land use changes, and the changes will produce conflicts. Land use conflicts often reveal problems and irrationalities in the current of land use layout. It can prompt to re-examine the land resources allocation and promote the its optimization and adjustment. We analyze the intensity and spatial distribution of land use conflicts in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) from 1990 to 2020 at the township (street) level. Then, we set up four scenarios to forecast the potential land use conflict intensity and distribution for 2030. Over whole period, the intensity of land use conflicts shows an inverted U-shaped curve, with high-level conflict areas mainly concentrated in the core region. Under four scenarios, the intensity of land use conflicts still conforms to an inverted U-shaped structure, with the lowest conflict intensity observed in the ecological priority scenario. Currently, under the strategy of ecological civilization, the land use pattern in the WMA has been moving towards reducing land use conflicts and optimizing the allocation of land resources. Assessing and predicting the intensity and spatial distribution of land use conflicts in the WMA can provide scientific support for the land use policy development.