Population Growth and Land Use Change in Dodoma City, Tanzania: Spatiotemporal Trends and Zonal Analysis at Ward-Level

Rapid capital-driven urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa is reshaping settlement patterns and straining infrastructure. This study examined the impact of population growth on land use and land cover (LULC) across five wards in the City of Dodoma, specifically Msalato, Ihumwa, Chamwino, Nala, and Matumbulu, between 2002 and 2022. The study integrated Landsat 5 TM (2002, 2012) and harmonized Sentinel-2 (2022) imagery with decennial census data. A supervised Maximum Likelihood classifier in ArcGIS 10.8, validated by 2023 field surveys, achieved an overall accuracy of 85.3% and Kappa statistics (κ = 0.82). Zonal statistics extracted ward-level metrics of settlement expansion, forest loss, and population density by overlaying LULC maps on administrative boundaries. Results showed that the built-up area nearly doubled from 10.2–22.8%, while agricultural land and vegetation cover declined by 35% and 27%, respectively. Peri-urban wards, specifically Ihumwa and Msalato, experienced the highest population surges (613% and 534%) and settlement growth (> 17%). Chamwino District, designated as the planned central business district, recorded the highest population density of 8,649.5 persons per km². Conversely, forest cover in peripheral wards fell from 9.7% to below 1%, indicating peri-urban woodland loss. These spatiotemporal trends highlight uncoordinated sprawl mainly driven by post-2016 capital relocation and land clearing. The study recommends strengthening geospatial monitoring, enforcing zonal land-use plans, and increasing infrastructure investments in rapidly growing peri-urban zones to promote sustainable, equitable development in Dodoma and similar secondary cities across Africa.