Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions - Evidence from provincial-level regions of China

In this study, we examine the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from agricultural activities across China’s 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020. By utilizing analytical tools like the standard deviation ellipse, Gini coefficient, and kernel density estimation to investigate emission patterns, a spatial Durbin model is used to explore the key drivers behind variations in agricultural carbon emissions. It is confirmed that carbon emission from agriculture in China tends to rise and decline, with an overall decreasing trend. The spatial pattern of these emissions primarily follows a “Northeast-Southwest” orientation, exhibiting notable spatial disparities, particularly with a larger gap in the eastern region and a larger relative contrast between the eastern and western parts. Various factors affect these emissions, such as the economic output of the primary industry, the total capacity of agricultural machinery, the amount of fertilizer applied, rural electricity consumption, the sowing area of crops, and other factors, of which the increase in the economic contribution of the primary industry will inhibit agricultural carbon emissions.