Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage and Driving Factors in Major Sugarcane-Producing Regions of Guangxi, China

Objectives: The major sugarcane-producing regions of Guangxi represent a critical agricultural zone in China. Investigating the mechanisms of land use change and carbon storage dynamics in this area is essential for optimizing regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. Methods: Employing the land use transfer matrix, the InVEST model and the Geodetector model to analyze carbon storage changes and identify key driving factors and their interactive effects. Results: (1) From 2011 to 2022, Guangxi’s major sugarcane-producing regions experienced significant land use changes: reductions in cultivated land, grassland and water bodies alongside expansions of forest, bare land and construction land. (2) The total carbon storage in Guangxi’s major sugarcane-producing regions has increased from 2011 to 2018 by 0.99%, representing 1627.03 and 1643.10 million tons, while it has decreased by 0.1% in 2022 (1641.47 million tons) compared to 2018. (3) Cultivated land proportion and forest coverage rate were the primary drivers of spatial heterogeneity, followed by average slope and land urbanization rate. (4) Interaction analysis revealed strong synergistic effects among cultivated land proportion, forest coverage rate, NDVI and average slope, confirming multi-factor control over carbon storage changes. Conclusions: Carbon storage in the Guangxi sugarcane-producing regions is shaped by land use patterns and multi-factor interactions. Future strategies should optimize land use structures and balance urbanization with ecological protection to enhance regional carbon sequestration.