Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage and Driving Factors in Major Sugarcane-Producing Regions of Guangxi, China

[Objectives] The major sugarcane-producing region of Guangxi represents a critical agricultural zone in China. Investigating the mechanisms of land use change and carbon storage dynamics in this area is essential for optimizing regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development.[Methods] Based on four-phase land use data (2011–2022), this study employed a land use transfer matrix and the Geodetector model to analyze spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage (assessed using the InVEST model) and identify key driving factors and their interactive effects.[Results] (1) From 2011 to 2022, total carbon storage in the study area fluctuated between 1,627.03 and 1,644.17 million tons, exhibiting a northwest-high, southeast-low spatial pattern, with high-value zones concentrated in mountainous regions and low-value areas in economically active lowlands. (2) Land use patterns significantly influenced carbon storage: forests remained the dominant contributor (>85% of total storage), while cropland and bare land initially declined before recovering. Grassland and water bodies showed sustained carbon loss, whereas construction land expansion drove carbon increases. (3) Land urbanization rate (q > 0.647) and cropland proportion (q > 0.656) were the primary drivers of spatial heterogeneity, followed by nighttime light index and forest coverage (q > 0.511). (4) Interaction analysis revealed strong synergistic effects among NDVI, forest coverage, and cropland proportion, with some factor combinations yielding q-values > 0.9, confirming multi-factor control over carbon storage changes.[Conclusions] Carbon storage in the Guangxi sugarcane-producing region is shaped by land use patterns and multi-factor interactions. Future strategies should optimize land use structures, strengthen forest conservation, and balance urbanization with ecological protection to enhance regional carbon sequestration.