Characteristics and Drivers of Spatial-Temporal Coupling of Carbon Emission Performance and Ecological Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of the coordination between carbon emission performance (CEP) and ecological resilience (ER) in the Yellow River Basin, considering China’s active urbanization transformation and commitment to the “dual-carbon” target. We establish a comprehensive evaluation system using the super-efficiency SBM model and the entropy weight TOPSIS method. Additionally, we analyze the dynamic evolution and driving factors of CEP and ER in the region through Gaussian kernel density estimation and geographic detector. The findings reveal that: CEP in the Yellow River Basin fluctuates during 2011—2021, with a slight overall change, while ER shows a consistent increase. Notably, CEP decreases notably in the upstream, moderately in the middle reaches, and marginally in the downstream. Conversely, ER improves in the upstream but declines overall, with slight enhancements in the middle reaches and little change downstream. The coupling coordination degree of CEP and ER among prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin exhibits fluctuating patterns, with modest increases in the middle and upper reaches and slight decreases in the lower reaches. Overall, the coordination degree is disordered, with regional disparities. High-value points were notable in the downstream in 2011, peaked in the midstream in 2017, but declined overall by 2021.The dynamic evolution of the coupling coordination degree of carbon emissions and ecological resilience reflects the complex interplay between urbanization, environmental policies, and geographic factors in the Yellow River Basin.