Non-negligible Unemployment and Economic Losses on Ski Industry in a Warmer Northern Hemisphere

Global climate warming poses significant challenges to the ski industry in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we develop an analytical framework by integrating downscaled snow depth simulations, machine learning techniques, and multi-regional input-output model to estimate the unemployment and economic losses under the global supply chain on ski industry in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we show that by 2060, the snow depth in the Northern Hemisphere decreases 20.74–32.13% and economic losses reach a total of US $ 86.66–104.42 billion under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), presenting a rapid growth trend with an elastic coefficient significantly exceeding 1. Climate change drives significant transformations in the spatial distribution of the ski industry in the Northern Hemisphere, with Alpine countries, including Austria, Italy, and Switzerland, expected to experience steep declines in economic growth. In contrast, the United States, China, and Russia emerge as new dominant regions in the ski industry. Once snow depth in the Alps decreases beyond a critical threshold of 41.42%, economic losses propagate widely across the global scale. Climate change threatens employment and livelihood in snow-reliant regions such as the Alps. By 2100, climate-induced supply chain disruptions reach as high as 1.44 million job losses (SSP585) in the Alpine ski industry. Meanwhile, an abrupt increase in unemployment risk hit middle-income countries such as China and Russia.