Industrialization policy and economic growth nexus within political dynamics in Tanzania

Tanzania's desire to move from an agrarian to an industrialized economy needs a careful examination especially from the perspective of industrialization strategies and political dynamics and economic growth. This study uses time-series data from 1990 to 2021 to investigate the relationship between industrial policy execution and economic performance in Tanzania's changing political situation. A Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR) model is used to identify heterogeneous effects throughout the economic growth distribution and a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model is utilized to evaluate and strengthen the findings. The findings show that excellent governance considerably boosts economic growth at the bottom end of the distribution (25th quantile), stressing its importance during periods of economic underperformance. At the top end (75th quantile), industrial sector expansion is identified as a major contributor to higher economic growth. Regime-specific study suggests that during President John Magufuli's fifth administration, the industrial sector provided 7% of GDP growth, while agriculture grew negatively. Interestingly, agriculture only showed a beneficial influence during the third and sixth administrations, with a major revival under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, which can be linked to greater budgetary allocations and policy priorities. Furthermore, the findings emphasize the role of political will, institutional quality, and sector-specific investment in generating long-term economic growth. The study suggests that strengthening institutional frameworks coupled with stakeholder participation is crucial to ensure that industrialization initiatives are inclusive and effective. These findings lead broader discussion of structural change and impactful for policymakers in seeking industrialization as a path for long-term prosperity in Tanzania.