Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience

Despite the recent surge of wind and solar power, both technologies need to grow even faster to meet climate goals. Yet, there is no method to assess the likelihood of further acceleration given the interaction between multiple techno-economic and socio-political drivers and barriers. We show that such interaction leads to distinct phases of renewable energy deployment including long periods of growth pulsating around relatively stable rates. We use machine-learning and Monte-Carlo analysis to develop a probabilistic model for global onshore wind and solar power deployment based on observed growth in early adopting countries. In our central projections, wind and solar power grow similarly to 2°C-compatible mitigation pathways, but substantially slower, especially in 2025-2035, than in 1.5°C-compatible pathways. Fulfilling the COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 and staying on track with the 1.5°C (no/limited overshoot) pathways, which fall within the 95th-percentile of our projections, requires that the growth of onshore wind and solar PV in major economies accelerates 1.3-3.4 times and 2-4 times respectively.