Changes in the Distribution Function of Annual Mean Temperature in Spain, 1979-2022

The climate change problem can be understood as a combination of two statistical operations: the distribution function shifts, resulting from a change in the location parameter, and the rescaling of the distribution function, resulting from a change in the scale parameter. This paper applies this conceptual model to the study of the annual mean daily temperatures of 40 Spanish localities from 1979 to 2022. The mathematical hypothesis is that the relationship between two distinct periods can be described as a linear relationship, and the physical hypothesis is that translations are related to changes in radiative forcing, while the rescalings are linked to fluctuations in atmospheric circulation, as reflected in the behavior of several teleconnection indices (NAO, EA, SCAN, WeMO). The results seem to confirm both hypotheses, although extending the study to other variables and spatio-temporal scales is necessary.