Attributing the extreme 2022 Pakistan Rainfall to CO2-induced Climate Change using Seasonal Forecasts

While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by climate change ^1,2 , climate models struggled to confirm this ^3,4 . Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both perturbed experiments show only minor rainfall changes, suggesting a limited role of CO₂ forcing for the event. Historical rise in CO₂ and ocean warming enhanced the rainfall by less than 10%, while simulations with increased CO₂ and warmer oceans fail to show a clear signal but increase the range of possible outcomes. By decomposing rainfall and underlying large-scale circulation into atmospheric CO ₂ and SST-induced components, we illustrate how their relative changes control future dynamical responses. Accurately capturing the local dynamics is crucial for reliable regional climate adaptation and informing loss and damage discussions.