The New Method of Estimation Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change

Global climate change is one of the major concerns of modern society. To estimate this change, the global mean temperature is often used. Measuring and calculating the Earth’s average temperature is a complex, multi-step process that combines data from various sources and employs statistical techniques. Today, datasets containing spatial-temporal data on Earth’s temperature are readily available. Although scientists claim to achieve an accuracy of a few tenths of a degree, the fundamental question is not accuracy but whether the global mean temperature is a meaningful metric at all. This paper demonstrates that the current methodology for determining the global mean temperature is inadequate for estimating the greenhouse effect and climate change, potentially leading to misleading scientific conclusions in the long term. A new methodology is introduced, focusing on the energy budget of the Earth's heating and cooling processes. The total influence of the atmosphere on the greenhouse effect and global warming can be estimated by comparing Earth’s temperature with that of the Moon, treated as a bare body. The concept of 'potential temperature for cooling' is introduced as a more appropriate parameter for assessing the greenhouse effect, global warming trends, and climate change. Applying this new methodology to temperature averaging is expected to yield surprising results and offer a more accurate insight into climate change.