Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Use Carbon Emission and Carbon Balance Zoning: Evidence from Xinjiang China

Land use (LU) change has become one of the primary sources of regional carbon emissions. Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and future trends of LU carbon emissions is of great significance for optimizing LU structures, formulating emission reduction policies, and developing a low-carbon economy in the region. Based on data of six LU types and energy consumption from 2000 to 2020 in Xinjiang, this study employs methods such as the LU transfer matrix and land dynamic state to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in LU and carbon emissions in Xinjiang. The results indicate the following: Firstly, from 2000 to 2020, the areas of cropland, forest, water, and impervious in Xinjiang showed an overall trend of continuous expansion, whereas grassland and barren continuously contracted. Secondly, according to the LU transfer matrix, from 2000 to 2020, 90.7% of the grassland was converted to forest, 87.8% of the forest was converted to cropland, 52.7% of the cropland was transformed into barren, 81.7% of the water was converted into barren, and 68.4% of the barren was transformed into cropland. Thirdly, the LU carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 exhibited a continuous expansion trend without any sign of mitigation, primarily due to the rapid growth in carbon emissions from impervious, while the carbon emission (absorption) levels from cropland, forest, water, and barren remained relatively stable. Fourth, from 2000 to 2020, the LU carbon emissions of the 14 cities in Xinjiang exhibit an overall pattern of diffusion from Urumqi as the center towards the east and west. Notably, there is a trend of the emission center shifting towards the southwest. Fifthly, in summary the carbon balance zoning in most regions of Xinjiang is progressively transitioning to higher categories.