Is China decoupling from the global value chain? A quantitative analysis framework based on the global production network

In recent years, frequent global emergencies have disrupted international stability and prompted countries to decouple from Global Value Chain (GVC) . How to restore the extent of countries’ decoupling is crucial for risk prevention. From a systems science perspective, this paper constructs a GIVCN model using ADB-MRIO data and proposes a theoretical framework for quantitatively analyzing the decoupling degree of economies and industries within GVC. Taking the U.S.’s new trade remedy measures as a case study, this paper examines their impact on China and “transit” countries regarding GVC decoupling. The main findings are: (1) Industries with significant intermediate goods trade are more stable in GVC than resource-based sectors during global disruptions. (2) Highly integrated countries with advanced economies show strong resilience and effectively utilize external resources in GVC. (3) Despite the COVID-19 impact, China’s resilience strengthened its GVC connections. (4) A domestic circulation-focused model enhances China’s ability to handle trade challenges from the West. (5) Multilateral trade agreements and “backdoor” export strategies effectively bypass U.S. trade restrictions in the short term. JEL: F731