Complementarity of Renewable Energy Sources in Brazil: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Causal Configurations

This research introduces a novel methodological approach using Fuzzy-set Qual- itative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to evaluate Brazil’s progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7.2—specifically the substantial increase of renewable energy share by 2030. Our multidimensional assessment framework transcends traditional unidimensional metrics by examining five critical dimen- sions: Global Renewable Expansion, Renewable Source Diversification, Seasonal Complementarity, Fossil Dependence Reduction, and Renewable System Stabil- ity. Analysis of historical data (2010–2024) and projected scenarios (2025–2030) reveals complex causal configurations associated with successful renewable inte- gration. Results identify Diversification of Renewable Sources (consistency 0.876) as the most important necessary condition, followed by Fossil Dependence Reduction (0.799) and Global Renewable Expansion (0.780). Perfect consistency (1.0) was found for several combinations including ”Expansion and Stability,” ”Complementarity and Fossil Reduction,” and ”Complementarity and Stability.” Counter-intuitively, future projections suggest potential regression in meeting sustainability targets despite increased absolute renewable generation, attributed to insufficient progress in critical complementarity and stability dimensions. This research provides methodologically sound and empirically grounded pol- icy recommendations focusing on diversification strategies, complementarity optimization, and strategic fossil source decommissioning.