Identification of dengue risk-prone areas using multicriteria decision-making model and machine learning algorithm in Kolkata and Howrah Municipal Corporation areas

Dengue fever poses a critical global health challenge, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Accurate identification of dengue-prone areas is essential for effective prevention and control. West Bengal, India, has witnessed significant dengue outbreaks, with the Kolkata-Howrah Municipal Corporation (KMC) area being the most affected. This study presents a novel approach, comparing Machine Learning (ML) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, to create a dengue susceptibility zonation model. We leverage diverse datasets, including environmental variables, demographic variables, and historical dengue incidence records collected through primary surveys. The models are built using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms, and their performance is assessed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, yielding Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) values. While both models achieve similar AUC values, they produce different zonation patterns. Random Forest generates a dispersed susceptibility map, while F-AHP yields a more concentrated pattern. Remarkably, Random Forest identifies high-risk zones effectively, with approximately 21.69% of dengue cases occurring in these areas, compared to 4.35% in the F-AHP model. These zonation maps are invaluable for decision-makers, health authorities, and disaster management teams, aiding in proactive measures to curtail dengue spread and reduce mortality. This study underscores the power of ML techniques in predicting dengue susceptibility zones, reinforcing existing knowledge of dengue risk factors. By bridging advanced data analysis with practical applications, we advance dengue prevention and control efforts in West Bengal, offering insights that could benefit regions grappling with similar challenges worldwide.