Climate-change Induced Multi-hazard Risk Assessment of Himachal Pradesh in Western Himalayan Region Using IPCC-AR6 Framework and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Approach

This study develops a composite multi-hazard risk index using 84 indicators across three components, i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. These indicators were selected based on the IPCC-AR6 Framework, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and the Multi-Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) approach. Unlike earlier studies, present study uniquely applies this framework to the Western Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh to measure climate-induced multi-hazard risk; identify spatially heterogeneous risk factors, and propose region-specific policy strategies. The findings of the study revealed significant inter-district spatial variation in risk levels. Five northern and northeastern districts, i.e., Lahaul-Spiti, Kullu, Kangra, Solan, and Kinnaur, exhibited high-risk status (> 0.375), while Chamba, Mandi, and Hamirpur showed moderate risk (0.200–0.375). The remaining districts, of the state including Una, Bilaspur, and Sirmaur, were categorised as low risk (< 0.200). One-way ANOVA identified 18 significant indicators with spatial differences: seven under hazard ( e.g., cold wave days, snowfall, lightning, extreme temperature, elevation ) and 11 under vulnerability and exposure ( e.g. , disability prevalence, Scheduled Caste population, health and education infrastructure, agricultural dependence, mobile access, population growth). The study also incorporates primary field investigation to validate the secondary findings. The results provide a robust evidence base for policymakers to formulate targeted climate risk mitigation strategies. This integrated approach offers a scalable model for assessing multi-hazard risks in other climate-vulnerable regions of the Himalaya.