Agricultural Development and Water Resource Constraints: Assessment and Optimization in Chengdu-Chongqing

Amid global climate change and rapid urbanization, the conflict between agricultural development and water scarcity is intensifying. In the Chengdu-Chongqing region, a key grain production and ecological hub, coordinating high-quality agriculture with sustainable water use is critical. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal interplay between Agricultural Development Quality (AQI) and Water Resource Carrying Capacity (WCI) from 2013–2022 across 16 cities, using TOPSIS, barrier degree analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and grey prediction. AQI shows steady growth but significant spatial heterogeneity, with Chongqing and Chengdu as developmental cores, while cities like Guang’an lag due to resource and talent constraints. WCI fluctuates, with climate extremes and urbanization widening disparities, though cross-regional water projects narrow gaps. AQI is projected to reach 2.0 by 2026. Strategies include cross-regional water coordination, core-city-driven industry clusters, and climate-adaptive agriculture to address resource-industry-environment bottlenecks. The multidimensional framework offers insights for Southwest China and global inland regions, advancing sustainable agriculture and water management integration.