Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Due to the rapid urbanization and global climate change, arid and semi-arid regions are becoming more vulnerable to the growing disparity between the supply and demand for ecosystem services. This study focuses on the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and examines four key ecosystem services: water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP). Using the InVEST model, geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and statistical methods, we quantify the supply-demand dynamics of these ecosystem services and identify the risk classification of ecosystem service supply-demand (ESSD) using the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) method. The results reveal significant spatial differentiation in the ESSD across Xinjiang. High-supply areas are primarily located in river valleys and along water systems, while high-demand regions are concentrated in the central cities of oases. WY and SR exhibit large deficit areas that are gradually expanding, whereas CS and FP have smaller deficit areas that are contracting. By integrating supply-demand ratios and trend indices, we identify four distinct clusters in the study area: B1 (WY-CS high-risk cluster), B2 (comprehensive high-risk cluster), B3 (comprehensive low-risk cluster), and B4 (WY high-risk cluster), with B4 being the dominant cluster, accounting for 46.2% of the total area. Based on the ESSD risk classification, we propose tailored ecological management recommendations for each cluster. This study provides a comprehensive ecological risk assessment grounded in ESSD, offering important perspectives for ecological management in arid and semi-arid regions.