Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports

This research investigates climate change impacts on the maximum aviation payload capacity across China’s airport network. Through analysis of projections from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, we quantify the temperature and the pressure effects on maximum take-off weight (MTOW) at 184 Chinese airports. The results reveal that all airports experience MTOW reductions by 2081–2100, with high-plateau airports (>2438 m) facing more moderate decreases (−1.25%) than plain airports (<1500 m) (−1.72%). This counterintuitive pattern stems from elevation-dependent pressure compensation: high-altitude regions benefit from significant pressure increases (4.6 hPa) that partially offset temperature-induced density reductions, while lowland areas receive minimal pressure compensation (0.9 hPa). For commercial aircraft, these changes translate to 1.3–2.9 tons of payload reduction for narrow-body aircraft at plain airports. Our findings demonstrate how topography modulates climate impacts on aviation operations, highlighting the need for regionally tailored adaptation strategies with a focus on economically vital lowland hubs.