Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports

This study examines how climate change affects maximum aviation payload capacity across China's diverse airport network. Analyzing projections from 30 CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, specifically we quantify temperature and pressure effects on Maximum take-off weight (MTOW) at 184 Chinese airports. Results reveal that while all airports experience MTOW reductions by 2081-2100, high-plateau airports (>2,438m) face more moderate decreases (-1.25%) than plain airports (< 1,500m) (-1.72%). This counterintuitive pattern stems from elevation-dependent pressure compensation: high-altitude regions benefit from significant pressure increases (4.6 hPa) that partially offset temperature-induced density reductions, while lowland areas receive minimal pressure compensation (0.9 hPa). For commercial aircraft, these changes translate to 1.3-2.9 tons payload reduction for narrow-body aircraft at plain airports. Our findings demonstrate how topography modulates climate impacts on aviation operations, highlighting the need for regionally-tailored adaptation strategies with focus on economically vital lowland hubs.