Decarbonising aviation does not imply successful climate change mitigation

We explore under what conditions climate targets for commercial aviation in Europe can be met, following the recent European regulations for the increased use of alternative fuels and in the absence of effective offsetting. Our analysis considers the role of hydrogen in decarbonising the aviation system with an unprecedented completeness in environmental and socio-technical dimensions. Our assessment shows that, by 2050, the additional climate forcing resulting from aviation can be stabilised. However, the level at which this stabilisation occurs varies widely, depending on the trajectory of air traffic growth (4.4–12.4 mW/m ² estimated by 2070), with all scenarios featuring some degree of overshoot. This variation is primarily driven by differences in near-term fuel demand, as technologies that promise to reduce dependence on fossil resources are still in development. Therefore, we recommend reassessing aviation climate targets, including stronger incentives for near-term reduction of fossil kerosene use and demand management.