Potential benefits of great circle routes to reduce fuel consumption and aircraft emissions in mainland China

Low-carbon aviation is crucial for mitigating climate change and reducing environmental impacts. This study investigates the potential environmental benefits of adopting great circle routes (GCRs) in mainland China's aviation industry, focusing on reductions in fuel consumption and aircraft emissions. Analysis of data from Chinese domestic flights between 2019 and 2023 shows that adopting GCRs could have reduced fuel consumption during the cruise phase from 96.8 Mt to 87.5 Mt, a decrease of 9.6%. Furthermore, by simulating future scenarios that consider air traffic growth, technological innovations, operational and infrastructure improvements, the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, and offsetting investments, our results indicate that adopting GCRs in mainland China from 2025 to 2050 could reduce CO ₂ emissions by 101.1 Mt (Low scenario), 175.8 Mt (Medium scenario), and 288.0 Mt (High scenario). More importantly, adopting GCRs in mainland China can be a significant strategy to change the spatial distribution and decrease emissions in densely trafficked hub airspaces. This study indicates that the Chinese aviation industry can find a new way to save fuel consumption economically and simultaneously reduce carbon emissions, aligning with sustainable development goals. The implications of the proposed study can be expanded worldwide to achieve a more sustainable aviation industry.